This weekend, the No. 5 Arkansas Razorbacks (40-9, 17-7 SEC) will play host to the No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs (32-16, 14-10 SEC) in a pivotal top-15 matchup inside Baum-Walker Stadium.
The Hogs return home limping after a series loss on the road at Kentucky, while the Bulldogs enter Fayetteville after taking a series at home against Alabama a weekend ago.
Mississippi State has won 9 of its last 11 ballgames, boosting it into projected regional host territory. In contrast, the Razorbacks have won 10 of their last 15, keeping them on the path to hosting through a potential super regional.
Here’s a closer look at the Bulldogs’ ball club and what to expect in this highly anticipated home SEC series:
Game Times & Info
Game 1 – Friday, 6:30 p.m. / SECN+
Game 2 – Saturday, 6 p.m. / SECN+
Game 3 – Sunday, 2 p.m. / SECN
Pitching Matchups:
Friday:
(ARK) LHP Hagen Smith: 9-0, 1.36 ERA, 125K/25BB, 66.0 IP vs (MSU) RHP Khal Stephen: 7-3, 2.96 ERA, 79K/18BB, 70.0 IP
Saturday:
(ARK) RHP Brady Tygart: 4-2, 3.34 ERA, 66K/30BB, 56.2 IP vs (MSU) RHP/LHP Jurrangelo Cijntje: 7-1, 3.53 ERA, 88K/24BB, 66.1 IP
Sunday:
(ARK) LHP Mason Molina: 3-2, 3.81 ERA, 71K/31BB, 49.2 IP vs (MSU) TBD
Friday night will feature a matchup between two of the SEC’s best in Mississippi State’s Khal Stehpens and Arkansas’ Hagen Smith.
Smith recorded 14 strikeouts last Friday night in Lexington, Ky., while Stephens struggled with a solid Alabama offense in his start.
Stephen, an all-Big Ten selection last season at Purdue, seems to have settled in nicely to SEC living. The Arkansas offense will need to disrupt that Friday.
Brady Tygart gets the nod for Game 2 after struggling last weekend against Kentucky. He will match up against Bulldogs switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje.
Yes, you read that correctly. Cijntje will pitch with both arms this weekend based on the matchup and can pump mid-90s heaters from either side.
The series finale will feature Arkansas’ Mason Molina and whoever the Bulldogs decide to throw. Likely candidates for the starter spot on Sunday are Nate Dohm, who is an electric freshman arm but may be unavailable due to soreness, as well as names like Brooks Auger or Evan Siary.
Key Bulldog Arms
LHP Tyler Davis: 20 APP, 4-0, 1.33 ERA, 32K/11BB
RHP Tyson Hardin: 17 APP, 3-0, 2.19 ERA, 22K/11BB
RHP Cam Schuelke: 27 APP, 2-2, 4.08 ERA, 33K/19BB
LHP Nolan Stevens: 14 APP, 2-3, 4.72 ERA, 28K/8BB
Mississippi State Staff SEC Ranks:
ERA: 4th (4.16)
Strikeouts: 5th (493)
Walks Allowed: 4th (176)
Opposing Avg: 4th (.232)
Arkansas will face a very strong Bulldog pitching staff this weekend. Mississippi State possesses a deep and talented bullpen with varying arm angles and velocities. The Bulldogs’ staff has no real Achilles heel, and has the second-best defense in the SEC playing behind it.
Familiar Offensive Struggles for State
The Mississippi State offense is led by returners from last year’s team in Dakota Jordan and Hunter Hines.
Those two are really the only two power threats in this Bulldogs offense that ranks 12th in the conference in home runs with 57. Jordan has 16 of those while Hines has 14, and Connor Husjak sits below them with 8.
Other top names you’ll see in the State lineup this weekend are David Mershon, Amani Larry and Bryce Chance, all of whom provide much more value in the field than at the plate.
As a team, the Bulldogs bat .285, which puts them right in the middle of the conference. The same is true for their team on-base percentage.
Unlike some past Mississippi State teams, this year’s squad does not possess an overwhelming offense. The Bulldogs don’t necessarily excel in any single offensive category and are in the 7-10 range in nearly every offensive stat.
They are, however, third in the SEC in sac bunts and fourth in sacrifice flies, so they like to play a little small ball.
SEC Title Implications
Here are the top four teams in the SEC standings as of May 9th
1. Kentucky (18-6)
T2. Tennessee, Arkansas (17-7)
4. Texas A&M (16-8)
Just two weekends remain in conference play and things are looking really tight at the top of the SEC standings.
As of right now, Kentucky seems to have the clearest path to the SEC regular-season title as it heads to Florida this weekend before hosting Vanderbilt.
In order to win the SEC title, Arkansas would need to sweep this weekend and win the series in College Station, Texas, against the Aggies, with a prayer that Kentucky drops a game to Vanderbilt and Florida.
It’s safe to say the Razorbacks’ chances aren’t great.
Keys To The Series
1. Keep the Stove on!
Arkansas second baseman Peyton Stovall has been on an absolute tear as of late. Following two solid performances in the midweek against Missouri State, Stovall went off in Lexington and earned Gorilla of The Week honors. The Hogs will need him to keep it rolling at the top of the lineup this weekend against a very good Mississippi State staff.
2. Kendall Diggs
Kendall Diggs had been struggling for some time as the Hogs rolled into Kentucky, but the veteran had a big weekend on the road, which seemed to rekindle the fire that we all know is in him. Just like Stovall, Arkansas needs Diggs to look like himself again this weekend and find confidence at the plate.
3. It’s all about energy
There’s supposed to be beautiful baseball weather this weekend in Fayetteville. Expect to see big-time crowds, especially on Saturday when Razorback fans will stripe out Baum-Walker Stadium. Arkansas needs to get a running start heading into the last series of the year, and then the postseason. That running start needs to happen this weekend, and the Hog faithful need to give this Arkansas team the kind of confidence it feeds on throughout the weekend.
Prediction
The Razorbacks will come out swinging against Stephens on Friday night and give Smith plenty of breathing room under the bright lights on the way to a victory over the Bulldogs in the series opener.
Arkansas is being blessed with another night game on Saturday, when Razorback fans will stripe out the stadium. Surrounded by a rowdy Hog fan base, Arkansas will escape with a series-clinching win in Game 2 in what could be a thriller.
The Razorbacks will complete the sweep Sunday in a low-scoring battle of the pitching staffs behind just enough offense from the Arkansas lineup.
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