This weekend the No. 2 Arkansas Razorbacks (35-6, 14-4 SEC) will play host to the Florida Gators (21-19, 8-10 SEC) for three games within the friendly confines of Baum-Walker Stadium in a pivotal conference weekend.
The Razorbacks returned to their home state on Tuesday night, grabbing a non-conference win over the UAPB Golden Lions after escaping South Carolina with a series win over the Gamecocks.
Kevin O’Sullivan’s Gators come to town having lost 2 of 3 at Vanderbilt last weekend before picking up a mid-week win over Stetson at home.
Game Times & Info
Game 1 – Friday, 6 p.m. CT / SECN+/SECN*
Game 2 – Saturday, 12 p.m. CT / ESPN2
Game 3 – Saturday, 45 minutes after Game 2 / SECN+
*- Game will begin on SEC Network+ and ESPN+ before moving to SEC Network at 7 p.m.
Pitching Matchups
Friday:
(ARK) LHP Hagen Smith: 8-0, 1.53 ERA, 100K/22BB, 53.0 IP vs (FLA) LHP Pierce Cappola: 0-2, 18.00 ERA, 4K/2BB, 3.0 IP
Saturday – Game 1:
(ARK) RHP Brady Tygart: 4-1, 2.64 ERA, 58K/23BB, 47.2 IP vs (FLA) TBA
Saturday – Game 2
(ARK) TBA vs (FLA) LHP Jac Caglianone: 5-0, 3.86 ERA, 54K/32BB, 44.1 IP
Once again, Arkansas’ opponent is avoiding Hagen Smith on Friday night, a bit more dramatically this time. Florida is throwing a sophomore in left-hander Pierce Cappola. The New Jersey native has thrown just 7 1/3 innings in his college career due to injury despite this being his third season as a Gator.
The 6-8 lefty threw just 1 2/3 innings in relief last Friday in Nashville, Tenn., giving up 3 hits and 2 earned runs in just his second appearance of the season.
Florida will rely heavily on bullpen arms as they try to take down Smith in Game 1. Game 2 will see Brady Tygart move back into the Saturday starter role as Mason Molina will miss the weekend with what Arkansas coach Dave Van Horn described as a “rolled ankle.”
Tygart had one of his best outings of the season last Sunday at South Carolina, going 6 innings strong with 6 strikeouts while walking just 2 Gamecock batters.
With Molina out, Van Horn threw out a TBA for the first time this season for Game 3.
Potential candidates for the start include Will McEntire, Colin Fisher, Ben Bybee or even a name like Gabe Gaeckle if Van Horn wants to shake things up.
Regardless of who it is, the Hogs will likely pitch by committee in Game 3 as they face two-way sensation Jac Caglianone, who has been the best Gator pitcher in 2024 by a good bit.
Florida’s Key Bullpen Arms
RHP Fisher Jameson – 19 APP, 2-0, 4.35 ERA, 39K/9BB
RHP Ryan Slater – 21 APP, 3-1, 5.35 ERA, 35K/11BB
RHP Brandon Neely – 15 APP, 1-2, 6.81 ERA, 45K/16BB
RHP Blake Purnell – 19 APP, 0-0, 6.27 ERA, 21K/5BB
Florida’s bullpen is built around hard-throwing right handers, with names like Jameson, Slater, Neely and Purnell sticking out.
Gator relievers have had their fair share of struggles this season, though, with a staff ERA of 6.35, which places Florida dead last in the SEC.
As far as candidates for the Game 2 starter for Florida go, Neely is an option, but also look to see true freshman Liam Peterson, who has made seven starts on the season.
Other guys you might see come out of the pen are Luke McNeillie, Alex Philpott and Grayson Smith. As a whole, the Gator pitching staff ranks last in ERA, 13th in opposing batting average and second in walks allowed.
This has been a rough season on the mound for O’Sullivan’s squad. Arkansas is being presented with a big opportunity to jump on some underwhelming pitching.
Heavyweight Gator Offense
The Florida offense is headlined by Caglianone. The projected top-5 pick in this year’s draft has had an exceptional season at the plate, batting .410 with 25 home runs and an OPS of 1.391.
He’s not the only one obliterating baseballs, though. Tyler Shelnut, Ty Evans, and Colby Shelton all have at least 10 homers.
Other names to look out for include Luke Heyman, Cade Kurland and Brody Donay.
Although Florida is only ninth in the conference in team batting average, it ranks top five in slugging percentage and third in home runs with 90.
This Florida team also doesn’t like to take many pitches. The Gators have walked only 171 times this season, which is 12th in the SEC. They rely heavily on the long ball. That may fare well for Hog pitching, which has allowed the fewest home runs in the SEC.
Three Keys to The Series
1. Break Apart a Bad Florida Pitching Staff.
This first key may seem a little bit obvious, but it is also the single most important thing for the Razorbacks to have success this weekend. There is no nice way to put it: the Gator pitching staff is straight-up bad.
The Arkansas lineup has been waiting to detonate for a while now, and this weekend is its best opportunity to do so.
2. Be Patient.
Building off the first note, another offensive key is to be patient at the plate. The Gators have struggled with command all season long. Even Caglianone has walked 30-plus batters, and most of their bullpen arms have had their own command issues, leading to inflated ERAs.
If the Razorbacks can be patient at the plate, as they have been all year long, the Gators will let them walk right into big innings.
3. Don’t Let Jac Kill Ya.
Caglianone is a bad man, both at the plate and on the mound. Unfortunately, the Razorbacks will have to deal with both aspects. If you take Caglianone out of both the lineup and the rotation, both take a big hit.
Arkansas has to attempt to do both, and doing so is possible. Caglianone’s Achilles heel seems to be his general lack of understanding of the strike zone. At the plate, he will swing at just about everything, but the problem is that he also hits just about everything.
The Razorbacks can afford to pitch around Caglianone a little bit, and they have to take advantage of his lack of control on the mound.
Series Notes and Factoids
- Florida and Arkansas were co-SEC champs a season ago.
- This matchup will be scout heavy, with Smith and Caglianone both being projected in the top 10 in this year’s MLB draft.
- Weather will play a huge role in the series, with storms rolling in throughout the weekend. There will be a doubleheader Saturday beginning at noon.
- Jared Sprague-Lott will likely make his return after being held out of the starting lineup in the last week due to an oblique injury.
- The Razorbacks have not lost at home since opening weekend.
Prediction
The Razorbacks will sweep the Gators behind a stellar outing from Smith in Game 1 and offensive outbursts lifting them over a struggling Florida pitching staff.
If this does come to fruition, the Hogs will exit the weekend 38-6 and 17-4 in SEC play with three weekends remaining.