The No. 2 Arkansas Razorbacks (38-7, 16-5 SEC) head to Lexington, Ky., this weekend to face the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (33-9, 16-5) inside Kentucky Proud Park.
The Hogs and the Cats are currently tied for first place in the SEC but seem to be on different trajectories as Arkansas has won its last two series and Kentucky has dropped its last two to Tennessee and South Carolina.
This series has huge implications for both squads concerning the postseason and SEC title race as Kentucky anticipates record crowds across the weekend.
Game Times & Info
Game 1 – Arkansas 10, Kentucky 3
Game 2 – Kentucky 11, Arkansas 3
Game 3 – Sunday, 12 p.m. / SECN+
Pitching Matchups:
Sunday:
(ARK) LHP Mason Molina: 3-1, 3.47 ERA, 68K/28BB, 46.2 IP vs (KEN) RHP Mason Moore: 7-1, 5.08 ERA, 49K/27BB, 56.2 IP
Both teams will roll with their usual starting rotations this weekend, with Mason Molina returning from an ankle injury that kept him out of the rotation a weekend ago.
Hagen Smith faces a transfer from The College of Charleston in Trey Pooser in Friday night’s pivotal matchup. Pooser is a right-handed pitcher whose fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s with an easy delivery that shouldn’t deceive the Hog bats too much.
This is the pitching matchup of the weekend. If the Razorback offense can get to Pooser the first time through, it will give Smith plenty of confidence and the Arkansas bats some much-needed momentum.
From there, Brady Tygart will look to build upon his last two weekends with another solid outing against Wildcat lefty Dominic Niman before the series finale between Molina and Moore, who has only been beaten once this season.
Key Wildcat Bullpen Arms
RHP Johnny Hummel: 16 APP, 2-0, 2.46 ERA, 32K/7BB (Closer)
LHP Evan Byers: 17 APP, 3-1, 3.32 ERA, 16K/4BB
LHP Jackson Nove: 17 APP, 1-0, 3.63 ERA, 32K/14BB
RHP Robert Hogan: 14 APP, 1-0, 3.47 ERA, 18K/11BB
Kentucky Staff SEC Ranks:
ERA: 8th (4.57)
Strikeouts: 14th (364)
Walks Allowed: 4th (356)
Opposing Avg: 4th (.229)
The Kentucky pitching staff generally pitches to contact and doesn’t walk a lot of batters, meaning the ball will be in the zone often this weekend. Razorback hitters need to take advantage of that.
The Speedy Wildcat Offense
The top batters statistically in the Wildcat order are DH Nick Lopez and left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt, who are batting .371 and .370, respectively.
Below them in the Kentucky offensive hierarchy are power threat Ryan Nicholson, who has 14 home runs, as well as Grant Smith, Emilien Pitre and Nolan McCarthy.
The Kentucky offense isn’t too dissimilar from what Hog fans have seen this year from a power standpoint. Only one Wildcat has double-digit home runs, as the Hogs and Cats are only three home runs apart on the season.
Power-wise, the numbers are very similar, but Kentucky does have the upper hand as far as batting average and on-base percentage go, and the Cats have scored 35 more runs than the Razorbacks.
Kentucky’s biggest strength offensively is its base-stealing prowess. The Cats lead the SEC in stolen bases with 92, and they don’t get caught often. They own a stolen base rate of over 80%.
The top threats on the base paths are Pitre, Devin Burkes and Waldschmidt, who each have 14-plus stolen bases. The leading base stealer for the Hogs is Wehiwa Aloy, who is 7-7 on the season.
The Arkansas battery will have to be sure to be extra cautious when the Wildcats are on base.
SEC Title Implications
Here are the top four teams in the SEC standings as of May 2nd:
T1. Arkansas, Kentucky (16-5)
T2. Tennessee, Texas A&M (15-6)
With just three weekends remaining in conference play, the title race is going to come down to the wire, with the current frontrunners being the Razorbacks and Wildcats.
Texas A&M seems to have the easiest path to the SEC title, as it heads to LSU and Ole Miss to face two struggling teams before hosting the Razorbacks in a highly anticipated series to round out the regular season.
Arkansas has by far the hardest path, as the final three teams it faces are all projected to host regionals. The Hogs will be on the road for two of them.
The winner of the Arkansas/Kentucky series will presumably come out of the weekend as the No. 1 team in the SEC standings, and if that is the Razorbacks, it would be a huge boost before entering the lion’s den to end the regular season.
Keys To The Series
1. Manage the base paths
Runners are 15-18 stealing against Hudson White, 10-11 against Parker Rowland, and 6-11 against Ryder Helfrick. What does this mean? Maybe nothing, maybe something. Percentages would tell Dave Van Horn to roll with the true freshman, but White is the go-to guy. Regardless of who is behind the dish, he will have to deal with a lot of stolen base attempts this weekend and will have to do his best to keep runners out of scoring position.
2. Brady Tygart
Tygart always seems to find himself in pivotal starts, but that comes with the job. This weekend is no different. Regardless of what happens Friday night, he will need to come through for Arkansas on Saturday to either win the series or force a rubber match.
3. Who will be the spark?
The Arkansas offense seems to rely on some kind of spark plug emerging from the lineup. Recently it’s been Peyton Holt, but it could be anybody this weekend. Hog fans don’t care who it is, but the bats need a spark this weekend in Lexington.
Prediction
The Hogs come out firing Friday night, ending the unfortunate trend of giving Smith very little run support and take Game 1.
Game 2 will be decided by Tygart’s start. If he can give Arkansas 5-plus innings and the offense can do just enough, the Hogs can take the series. I predict just that to happen.
The Cats will come out hot on Sunday and take Game 3 in order to avoid a sweep.
If my predictions are correct, the Razorbacks will exit the weekend at 40-8 overall and 18-6 in conference play before hosting the Mississippi State Bulldogs.