The No. 1 Arkansas Razorbacks (17-2, 3-0 SEC) will head down to The Plains to take on the No. 23 Auburn Tigers (14-6, 0-3 SEC) in their first true road series of the year, which begins with a nationally televised game on Thursday night.
The Hogs are fresh off of a series sweep over Missouri in which the Arkansas pitching staff held the Tigers to just one run the entire weekend. The Razorbacks will face a much tougher test from the Tigers of Auburn, who enter the weekend ranked despite being swept by No. 3 Vanderbilt to begin SEC play.
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1
(ARK) LHP Hagen Smith: 3-0, 1.57 ERA, 50 K/8 BB, 23.0 IP vs. RHP Conner McBride: 3-0, 2.41 ERA, 15 K/4 BB, 18.2 IP
Game 2
(ARK) RHP Brady Tygart: vs. (AUB) (AUB) RHP Chase Allsup: 1-1, 7.15 ERA, 27 K/8 BB, 22.2 IP
Game 3
(ARK) LHP Mason Molina: vs. (AUB) RHP Joseph Gonzalez: 2-1, 6.92 ERA, 4 K/9 BB, 13.0 IP
Auburn will begin the series with junior righty Conner McBride, who
has been starting mid-week games. McBride has the best numbers of any of the starters, with an ERA of 2.41, record of 3-0 and a very solid WHIP of .81. But this will be his first career start against an SEC team.
The Tigers’ “ace” is right-hander Chase Allsup. Think righty Mason Molina, but without the nasty stuff and less cool facial hair. Allsup carries a record of 1-1 with an ERA that has skyrocketed in recent weeks to 7.15, but the number that really jumps off of the page with Allsup is his batting average against, which is a whopping .305.
The third starter spot for the time being seems to belong to Joseph Gonzalez. He is an experienced starter for the Tigers who has had his fair share of struggles early in the 2024 season. Gonzalez is 2-1 with an ERA of 6.92 with only 4 (!) strikeouts through 13 innings pitched.
He loves pitching to contact and is always looking for a rollover.
Prior to this weekend, the Tigers had been using junior lefty Carson Meyers in the rotation. He started the year strong before allowing 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts, and he holds a 4.79 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings on the year.
Boom-or-Bust Offense for Auburn
The Auburn lineup is headlined by first baseman Cooper McMurray, who leads the team in average (.369), OPS (1.352), home runs (8), RBI (28) and OBP (.506). Other names to watch for include Mason Maners, Ike Irish and Cooper Weiss, all three of whom can be found hitting toward the top of the order with batting averages well above .300.
After that, there’s a noticeable dropoff at the bottom of the Tigers’ batting order. As a team, Auburn sits near the bottom of the conference in several offensive categories, ranking last in hits, 11th in batting average and 10th in on-base percentage.
The one thing keeping the Tigers’ offense afloat is its power. They rank 6th in the league in slugging percentage (.538) and home runs, with seven players logging at least three long balls.
Bullpen Names to Know
As far as pitching goes, the Tigers are anchored by their bullpen, which has several experienced, veteran arms. Names to know out of the Auburn bullpen include John Armstrong, Tanner Baumann and Parker Carlson.
Armstrong has the best numbers on the team, with an ERA of just
1.46 through 12 1/3 innings of work. Armstrong’s short-arm delivery and unnatural release point make for an uncomfortable at-bat for right-handed hitters, and one could expect to see him as much as the Tigers can possibly bear this weekend.
Carlson and Baumann are both also likely to make appearances this weekend, as Carlson has an ERA of 0.00 and Bauman has SEC bullpen experience. He pitched against the Hogs last year in Fayetteville.
The key to the weekend offensively for the Hogs will be to knock out the starters early, especially on Thursday and Friday, in order to put as much pressure on the top-heavy Tigers’ bullpen as possible.
Prediction
As we know, an SEC series sweep is no easy task. Last year’s Razorback squad did it four times, and I would expect this year’s team to at least match that number.
However, I don’t think we should expect the Hogs to secure sweep No. 2 this weekend. Smith should have no issues on Thursday night en route to a Game 1 victory, and the Razorbacks’ bats should be enough for a series-clinching win Friday behind the arm of Tygart.
The Tigers will come out Saturday in desperation mode, looking for their first conference win. They steal Game 3.
The Diamond Hogs should feel confident leaving Auburn with their first road SEC series win of the season. Then they will get ready to host UALR on Tuesday night.
Great write up. Look forward to reading more as the season goes on. Tu