The No. 1 Arkansas Razorbacks have been the best team in all of college baseball this season, without question. While the Hogs’ dynamic pitching staff has garnered plenty of deserved praise for its efforts leading the way, Arkansas’ lineup is starting to find a true identity as the competition level has risen in SEC play.
At a glance, there isn’t a ton that really jumps off the page when you look at what the Hogs have done offensively this spring. They’re currently ranked 111th nationally in batting average (9th in SEC) at .283 for the year, and they’re in the bottom half of the conference in terms of scoring overall. But a closer examination of their play, particularly over the last few weeks of SEC action, makes it a little bit easier to be optimistic about the group.
Hogs Rising (and Falling?) to Level of Competition
As you’d expect, the Razorbacks’ hitting numbers across the board are down in SEC play compared to non-conference opponents. But the gap isn’t as drastic as most, and some of the league’s best offenses on paper have been exposed to varying extents in conference games.
The Hogs are hitting .259 in SEC play, good for ninth in the conference, but their slugging percentage in league play (.467) is very similar to their mark overall (.476) and ranks fifth in the conference during 12 SEC games. Arkansas’ .378 on-base percentage ranks third in the SEC during league play, despite the Hogs’ overall ranking for the year still being eighth in the conference.
Translation: Arkansas ranks better in the SEC offensively during actual league games despite the team’s overall numbers on the year being pretty average across the board. The Hogs are smack dab in the middle when it comes to scoring (7th, 6.2 runs per game), which may not inspire a ton of confidence, but it’s been good enough to earn an 11-1 record behind a pitching staff that leads the league in ERA and strikeouts.
Puzzle Pieces Progressing Proficiently
After a productive weekend at the plate against Ole Miss, the Razorbacks now have eight qualified hitters batting at least .280 for the year. That list includes Peyton Holt, who has not been in the everyday lineup since the return of Petyon Stovall, but it speaks to the overall threat the Hogs have developed at this point in the year.
Perhaps one of the biggest knocks one could have against Arkansas big picture would be the lack of real star power in the lineup. There isn’t a Charlie Condon or Jac Caglianone-type name that teams circle and fear. But some of the Hogs’ most talented position players are starting to live up to their billing, and opposing pitchers are becoming more and more careful with how they navigate the heart of the lineup.
Junior second baseman Peyton Stovall is hitting .338 overall since returning from injury and a whopping .362 in 12 conference games while nearly doubling up his career slugging percentage prior to this season. Sophomore shortstop Wehiwa Aloy has also started to generate plenty of buzz as one of the nation’s top prospects while bringing his batting average up to .295 and leading the Hogs in runs driven in and scored.
Aloy has hit .326 in SEC play, where he’s also hit five of his team-leading eight home runs on the year. And yet somehow, he might not even be the best Hawaiin underclassman for the Hogs at the moment with freshman Nolan Souza forcing his way into the designated hitter spot. Souza, who was named the SEC Freshman of the Week on Monday morning, leads the team with a .357 average and .732 slugging percentage, and he’s hit four of his six home runs in SEC games while hitting .323 with a .710 slugging mark.
While that trio could be the only Razorback starters that will push for an All-SEC spot at years’ end, there are some more promising pieces starting to find a groove in the lineup. Juniors Will Edmunson and Hudson White are hitting .300 and .298, respectively, in conference games. Kendall Diggs and Ben Mclaughlin have seen their batting averages dip in recent weeks, but Diggs is still slugging .510 in SEC games with 10 RBI, and McLaughlin leads the conference with 15 walks in league play.
How They Stack Up
Of course, it’s still early in the grand scheme of things. We are just now approaching the halfway point of the SEC schedule, and several big tests remain on the horizon with teams like Florida and Texas A&M. All of these numbers could look completely different in three weeks, but the Hogs are on a pretty solid pace through a month of conference competition.
In fact, (skip down a paragraph, old folks) if you remove batting average from the equation and simply look at OPS, which offers a much more complete measure of a team or players’ effectiveness, this current Arkansas lineup is actually a lot closer to the red-hot offenses from 2018 and 2019 than they are from the last three teams in Fayetteville, each of which had plenty of success.
(Year | BA | OBP | SLG | Season Result)
SEC Play Only
2018 | .302 | .380 | .486 | 48-21, CWS Final
2019 | .287 | .374 | .472 | 46-20, CWS (0-2)
2020 (COVID)
2021 | .260 | .365 | .437 | 50-13, Super Regional
2022 | .254 | .356 | .444 | 46-21, CWS (3-2)
2023 | .256 | .366 | .433 | 43-18, Regional
2024 | .259 | .378 | .476 | TBD
It’s been a similar formula for the Razorback offense, particularly in recent years. They don’t string together a ton of hits in a row often, but they work counts, work walks (lead SEC with 65 in conference play), then find a big hit to flip the momentum of the game.
Early in the year, Arkansas struggled to find its power stroke, but the Hogs showed they might be due for some progress at the plate. Two weeks ago, the Hogs had the fewest strikeouts in the SEC during league play, and they remain in the bottom four with the lowest K rate of any of the offenses listed above, but it hasn’t stopped them from slugging as well as any team under hitting coach Nate Thompson.
All in all, the Razorbacks are on track to have more production across the board than they’ve had over the last three years. The current group isn’t quite as consistent as the back-to-back World Series participants in 2018 and 2019, and might not be as star-studded, but the gap isn’t as large as it appeared to be in the early going.
Will this offense do enough down the stretch to keep winning at an insane rate? Will they get the big hits when it matters most? Is there an uptick incoming, or perhaps a drop-off in production?
All of those questions will get answered in due time, but the Hogs’ offensive trends of late are a lot more positive than many (including us fine folks here at Natty State Sports) expected after a slow start to the season. Add in the nation’s best pitching staff lowering the bar needed for success, and it’s hard not to be pretty optimistic about the Arkansas lineup as it enters the heart of SEC play.