The No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks (42-10, 19-8 SEC) head to College Station, Texas, this weekend to take on the No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (42-10, 17-10 SEC) inside Blue Bell Park.
The Razorbacks are coming off a series win over Mississippi State from the comfort of Baum-Walker Stadium while the Aggies have lost their last two conference series on the road to LSU and Ole Miss, respectively.
Arkansas will have its hands full this weekend as the Aggies boast one of the top offenses in college baseball to go along with a 30-2 home record.
Here’s a closer look at the Texas A&M ball club and what to expect out of this hyped-up regular-season series finale.
Game Times & Info
Game 1 – Thursday, 7 p.m. / ESPN 2
Game 2 – Friday, 7 p.m. / SECN
Game 3 – Saturday, 2 p.m. / SECN
Pitching Matchups
Thursday:
(ARK) LHP Hagen Smith: 9-0, 1.65 ERA, 136K/29BB, 71.0 IP vs (TAM) LHP Ryan Prager: 8-1, 2.71 ERA, 95K/12BB, 69.1 IP
Friday:
(ARK) RHP Gage Wood: 3-1, 3.03 ERA, 44K/7BB, 29.2 IP vs (TAM) TBA
Saturday:
(ARK) TBA vs (TAM) LHP Shane Sdao: 4-1, 2.03 ERA, 46K/8BB, 40.0 IP
Dave Van Horn is shaking up the rotation this weekend. In turn, one of the two, if not both of Brady Tygart and Mason Molina will be out of the starting rotation for only the second time in 2024 as Gage Wood gets the nod Friday with a TBA for Saturday’s finale.
Before then, the series opener Thursday night will feature a matchup between two of the SEC’s premier arms in Arkansas’ Hagen Smith and Texas A&M’s Ryan Prager.
Smith is the frontrunner for National Pitcher of the Year while Prager was named to the Midseason Golden Spikes Award watch list.
Wood, a sophomore, will make just his second career start Friday night. Moving Wood out of the bullpen seemed imminent with Molina’s and Tygart’s recent struggles.
Wood has been electric all season out of the bullpen but will have to prove himself in Game 2 against Texas A&M’s choice on the mound, which will likely be either Tanner Jones or Justin Lampkin.
The Aggies will throw left-hander Shane Sdao on Saturday. Similar to Wood, Sdao made his living in the bullpen up until recently. He has earned the starter role, capturing SEC Pitcher of the Week honors last weekend.
Arkansas is likely to throw either Tygart or Molina for the series finale, but Van Horn could get really weird with it and go with a name like Ben Bybee or Koty Frank, and pitch by committee.
Key Aggie Arms
Evan Aschenbeck: 23 APP, 4-1, 1.94 ERA, 60K/7BB, 51.0 IP
Brad Rudis: 18 APP, 5-0, 1.26 ERA, 28K/9BB, 28.1 IP
Chris Cortez: 18 APP, 7-2, 3.71, 60K/22BB, 43.2 IP
Texas A&M Staff SEC Ranks:
ERA: 3rd (3.96)
Strikeouts: 3rd (531)
Walks Allowed: 2nd (162)
Opposing Avg: 2nd (.232)
Texas A&M gives Arkansas a run for its money for the best pitching staff in the SEC. The numbers only back up the fact that the Aggie bullpen is full of high-end arms and guys ready for any situation.
Their top bullpen arm is Evan Aschenbeck, who may just be the best reliever in America.
Arkansas’ bats will have to adjust quickly to this talented Texas A&M bullpen if it wants to find any success this weekend.
The Prolific Aggie Offense
The Aggies are top three in the SEC in batting average, slugging, on-base percentage, home runs and runs scored.
It’s a three-headed monster in the middle of the Aggie order with Braden Montgomery, Jace LaViolette and true freshman Gavin Grahovac. Those three have combined for 69 home runs and 213 RBI.
Among them in the lineup are Jackson Appel, who leads Texas A&M in batting average (.347), Hayden Schott and Ali Camarillo. Each of them bat over .300.
The Aggies’ offense is powerful, scary, elite – use whatever adjective you’d like. But the bottom line is the Arkansas pitching staff will have its work cut out for it.
The Aggies also lead the SEC in walks, so Arkansas pitchers cannot just pitch around the top guys in the lineup.
If there is an Achilles heel to the Texas A&M offense, it’s that it strikes out at an alarming rate, led by Gavin Grahovac, who has struck out 70 times this year.
SEC Title Implications
Here are the top four teams in the SEC standings as of May 15th
1. Kentucky (20-7)
T2. Tennessee, Arkansas (19-8)
4. Texas A&M (17-10)
It’s looking likely that the SEC regular-season champ will come out of the SEC East this year. Kentucky and Tennessee both host their series this weekend against inferior teams.
Arkansas will be fighting for the SEC West title this weekend, and the path is clear and simple. If the Hogs win just one game, they capture the West.
If Texas A&M sweeps, the Aggies will be SEC West champs in 2024.
3 Keys To The Series
Smith vs. Prager
It feels like Arkansas’ best chance to beat the Aggies is in the series opener with Smith on the hill.
In a series that you can’t realistically expect Arkansas to win, the Hogs need just one win to clinch the West and their top-eight national seed. That happens if Smith moves through the Texas A&M order without getting hit around and out-pitches Ryan Prager.
Gage Wood
If Wood can give 4-plus innings of quality work, you have to feel like he’s come out and done his job. After all, this will be only his second career start. Hog fans can’t expect excellence, especially against an offense like Texas A&M’s.
If Wood comes out and looks like he’s pitching in his second career start and Arkansas has to use up its bullpen, the odds of winning the series decrease dramatically.
Light the spark
The Arkansas offense got its spark again last weekend in the form of both Hudson White and Peyton Holt. The Hogs will need at least two more big performances in College Station if they want to get to the Aggies’ staff.
Expect someone like Peyton Stovall or Ben McLaughlin to use their veteran experience to light that spark for on the road.
Prediction
Smith continues his season of complete dominance on Thursday, shutting down the Aggie offense and leading the charge to victory for the Razorbacks.
On Friday night, Wood looks solid in his start, but the Aggies are just too much to hold back as they take Game 2.
The series finale could be a close game, but behind an electric home crowd and power surge from the lineup, the Aggies come out on top and take the series.
If my prediction is correct, the Razorbacks will move to 43-12 on the season and earn the SEC West title before heading to Hoover for the SEC Tournament.